Growing from the back, but not leading from the front

Between the idea

And the reality

Between the motion

And the act

Falls the shadow

T.S Eliot's The Hollow Men provides an apt metaphor to describe the consulting market at the beginning of 2013. From a macro-economic point of view we find ourselves in the shadow that falls between the motion of the scrambled, last-minute US fiscal-cliff deal, and the act - weighing heavily on the shoulders of America's newly re-elected President - of its eventual resolution. Sooner or later, of course, the shadow will pass and the glaring reality of a $16tn mountain of debt will slap the face of the deal-makers once more.

Against that backdrop you could forgive clients for feeling nervous about the prospects for their business, and for keeping a firm hand on consulting expenditure as a result. But perhaps the last few years have made opportunists of business leaders, because in the rare absence of imminent crisis (assisted, it must be said, by much more positive news emerging from the Eurozone) they appear to be looking forward with optimism. And planning to spend more on consulting.

So says the simplest  reading of our latest research - published this week as Part 1 of our Strategic Planning Programme -  which is based on interviews and surveys with 800 senior end-users of consulting services. In fact this is the most positive reading of the market we've taken over the course of the last five years: across virtually every sector and every service line, the forecast, based on what clients are telling us, is for growth. We go into the detail of how much and where in our report.

And yet between the motion and the act falls the shadow once more. It would be unlike the market we have come to know over the last few years for forecasts to be unambiguous, and yet again a frisson of uncertainty peppers our predictions. We discuss why at length in our report but here's one reason: it's about the gap between an idea - that what clients tell us they need help with, more than just about anything else at the moment, is growth - and the reality, that they expect most consultants to support, rather than lead, growth initiatives. That seems to have a lot to do with the extent to which clients now associate consultants with back-office, rather than front-office, work. It doesn't apply to all firms but for those it does affect it could end up being quite a big deal, even if it's measured in missed opportunities rather dented top lines. They may still benefit from clients' focus on growth - showing up as demand for technology, for instance, or some aspect of operational consulting - but to nothing like the extent they could, were they able to convince clients that the front-office was an environment in which they were equally comfortable. And they might not realise what they're missing.

Still, we're reluctant to detract from the over-riding theme of our research so far this year, which really is about a more positive outlook for the industry. After all, we've spent quite a number of years attempting to dampen the runaway expectations of frustrated consulting firms, and that hasn't been much fun. But a judicious approach to the market really will make all the difference. The better informed, the shorter the shadow.